After years of market uncertainty, with investors wringing their hands and restructuring their finances, 3G has finally gained credibility.

“3G subscriptions, including CDMA2000, are forecast to hit 285 million by the end of 2006,” says ABI Research’s Asia-Pacific director, Jake Saunders. He goes on to say that, “Operators’ overall capital expenditure will grow for the fourth year to reach $126.4 billion, and annual 3G-related handset shipments should pull past 300 million.”

W-CDMA is starting to pull its weight in the 3G stakes, and is expected to overhaul CDMA2000 by about 2012, but CDMA2000 is certainly not out for the count: it has proved to be an efficient solution. Nevertheless, W-CDMA will continue to keep the pressure on, and as end-users replace their GSM handsets, many will default to purchasing a W-CDMA handset, providing manufacturers with increasing economies of scale.

But not even W-CDMA backers can afford to stand still. TD-SCDMA may be taking time to reach commercial reality in China, but it is already clear that Chinese infrastructure vendors, such as Datang Mobile, are re-engineering their solutions to offer a hybrid TD-SCDMA/HSDPA solution that makes the most of both technologies. WiMAX, too, cannot be underestimated.

These access technologies dictate the overall cost of service delivery and the functionality of the value-added services that operators wish to offer. They also determine which camps of vendors (and their upstream and downstream component suppliers) will receive the lion’s share of the equipment-spending pie. Intangible factors such as legacy equipment integration, access to towers, backhaul infrastructure, handset lineups, and vendor financing also enter the equation.

“The exciting prospect is that national markets could be opening up to alternative access technologies more than ever before,” says Saunders. “If the vendors of the new alternative 3G+ solutions can demonstrate that they can operate alongside existing 3G and even 2G infrastructures, the opportunities for new entrants (or even a few industry veterans such as Qualcomm and Lucent) could suddenly look a lot brighter.”

ABI Research’s new study, “3G Mobile Market Trends” surveys the current 2G and 3G cellular landscape, identifies markets with the greatest potential for 3G and 3G+ development, and compares the various 2G, 3G, and 3G+ access technologies. It includes 3G subscriber and handset shipment numbers, and considers the operators and the evolution of their CAPEX. The study forms a part of three ABI Research Services, Mobile Broadband, Mobile Operators and Wireless Infrastructure.

The leading mobile operator in Hong Kong, and Nokia, the global leader in mobility, announced today that Nokia has delivered the High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) solution to the operator. Nokia and CSL have successfully completed the first 16QAM call supporting 3.6 Mbps HSDPA in the CSL network. A smooth evolution to 3G networks, the Nokia HSDPA solution will enable CSL to offer its customers high-quality broadband mobile data services and gradually enhance the data rate to 3.6Mbps when supporting devices are available.

“The implementation of the Nokia HSDPA solution puts us in an unrivalled position, as the HSDPA 16QAM technology doubles the current HSDPA rate available in the market, hence giving our consumers an even more exciting mobile broadband experience,” said Adam Wong, Director, Mobile Networks of CSL.

“We are pleased to continue supporting CSL as their network evolves towards HSPA,” says Mike Wang, General Manager, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Networks, Nokia. “The deployment of Nokia HSDPA solution involves only simple software upgrade to current 3G network, giving a cost efficient and effective solution to CSL.”

Nokia and CSL have been working together since 1991, providing GSM, GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA infrastructure for the CSL’s network.

In WCDMA 3G, Nokia has 63 customers to date. Nokia’s high-performing HSPA is a simple software upgrade to Nokia WCDMA networks, thus enabling a fast, cost-effective rollout. Nokia HSPA is made up of two key technologies, HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access) and HSUPA (High Speed Uplink Packet Access), offering breakthrough data speeds theoretically up to 14.4 Mbps in the downlink and up to 5.8 Mbps in the uplink.

Nokia HSDPA offers almost 10-times faster data services than current 3G networks, meaning an enhanced service experience. Nokia is a leader in the HSDPA market, with a large number of HSDPA contracts. Many network operators have already opened their HSDPA networks with the Nokia solution.

Nokia has won its first network deal with Bulgarian operator Vivatel. Nokia will improve GSM coverage in the Vivatel network and prepare it for 3G launch by supplying GSM/EDGE/WCDMA 3G/HSDPA radio network and 3G core network, and related services.

Nokia will supply Vivatel radio network including GSM and Nokia Flexi WCDMA base stations, and cellular transmission. Nokia will also become Vivatel’s sole 3G core network supplier and deliver Nokia IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), Nokia Flexi Intelligent Service Node (ISN) and Nokia MSC Server mobile softswitch. The network will be supported by the multivendor Nokia NetAct(TM) network and service management system. Deliveries started in August 2006.

Nokia’s services team will ensure efficient and timely completion of the network project. Nokia will provide project management, network planning, consulting and integration, and maintenance services, and will operate the network during the initial phase of the project.

“Nokia’s high-quality, reliable products and their end-to-end capability sealed our decision to select Nokia,” says Richard Shearer, CEO of Vivatel. “This benefits our customers, as initially they will be able to enjoy improved GSM coverage, and later we will launch 3G services.”

“This is an important deal to Nokia and we are pleased to be bringing 3G to Bulgaria together with Vivatel,” says Filip Rommelaere, General Manager, Networks, Nokia. “With Nokia solutions, operators can easily evolve their networks to the advanced technologies now being developed, protecting investments.”

In WCDMA 3G, Nokia has 62 customers to date. Nokia’s high-performing HSDPA is a simple software upgrade to Nokia WCDMA networks, thus enabling a fast, cost-effective rollout. Nokia HSDPA offers almost 10-times faster data services than current 3G networks, meaning an enhanced service experience. Nokia is a leader in the HSDPA market, with a large number of HSDPA contracts. Many network operators have already opened their HSDPA networks with the Nokia solution.

Nokia is creating seamless user experiences in converging networks thanks to mobile softswitching and IMS for fixed and mobile. With close to 100 customers for its mobile softswitching, Nokia has delivered the majority of the world’s commercial 3GPP-compliant mobile softswitching. Nokia is also the front-runner in IMS for fixed and mobile networks, with over 90 references for IMS solutions, such as Push to talk over Cellular, while paving the way for network renewal with IMS-based voice and applications in fixed networks.