IP-based messaging ready to replace legacy messaging services by 2008 …but text messaging will still be the most popular communications tool, according to poll at the Global Messaging Congress.
According to a new study by ABI Research, fixed and mobile network operators will invest a total of US$10.1 billion in IMS capital infrastructure over the next five years. Worldwide, ABI Research forecasts that operators will generate $49.6 billion in service revenue from IMS-enabled applications in 2011.
A LogicaCMG survey of over 100 attendees at the Global Messaging 2006 conference, in London last week, has revealed mixed attitudes towards next generation messaging and IP Multimedia Subsystems (IMS), the IP-based mobile infrastructure platforms that are predicted to replace existing systems.
The vast majority (38%) of respondents are confident that IMS and mobile Instant Messaging (IM) will be mature enough to take over legacy messaging delivery methods globally by 2008, with a further 5% optimistic that it will be ready by the end of 2006. 60% of respondents predict that IM will be the first IMS service to succeed, with email and text only polling 18% and 15% respectively. However, there are some sceptics (21%) who believe that these messaging methods will never fully replace text (SMS) and picture (MMS) messaging.
LogicaCMG reckons that CEOs can be encouraged by the fact that the introduction of new services to differentiate and enhance SMS will have the biggest impact on messaging profitability, according to more than one third (34%) of respondents. This implies that if implemented smoothly and in a way which consumers will react to, the Return on Investment from next generation SMS will contribute significantly to operators’ fortunes. Also highlighted as factors which will impact messaging profitability are IMS (19%), cost reduction of SMS infrastructure (19%), higher value messaging services (18%) and wider overall messaging uptake (10%).
New Messaging Brands
Further changes in the mobile industry are predicted, with only 12% believing that operators themselves are going to be the major brands in mobile messaging in two years time. Instead, 31% think that messaging will be increasingly community driven with no one brand dominating. While this should sound a positive note to operators, indicating that there will be room for all players, they should still be aware of the threat posed by the desktop Instant Messaging leaders: 35% of show attendees believe that brands including Microsoft MSN, Yahoo and AOL will dominate the consumer mindset.
SMS Will Stay More Popular Than IM
The LogicaCMG survey of industry representatives predicts that the communications tools which will be the most popular with consumers in 2008 are text messaging (35%) and voice (23%). The research also indicates that there is still weight behind the argument for video calling as 17% think this could be most popular with consumers. Advanced data services like email and IM still need to capture the consumer imagination, however, as only 10% and 13% respectively rate these as becoming the most popular tools.
Steven van Zanen, Vice President at LogicaCMG Telecoms, says: “The LogicaCMG poll reflects the general consensus of the industry that text messaging will always be the favourite communications tool for users. The immense popularity of SMS also means operators already have valuable knowledge about how consumers like to communicate, and that they do not care what technology is used to facilitate this. It is clear from the survey that the industry believes IMS platforms are the future and operators should leverage its potential to deliver enhanced versions of proven services, such as text messaging, in addition to new data services.”
However van Zanen said that “a lot of new sevices could be achieved today with existing technology. It isn’t a technology issue but the business models need to be clarified. Operators are well adbvised not just to focus on cost savings but on the business model. Consumers want ubqitious access easily and do not want to pay diferent providers with complex schemes said van Zanen.
SMS Is Ready For More
Just because networks are moving to IMS, it dosn’t mean the end for SMS. Over 100 networks have turned into IP networks delivering SMS.
“We can see movements in the market that emphasis is back on SMS” said van Zanen. “Operators have so far not understood that rather than a one size fits all and they need to differentiate SMS for consumers and also make it reliable for business.”
“What is a challenge with an IP framework is that you get more tools and you can get further away from what consumers actually do and why.” If we do it properly, all messaging will increase with IM and email on mobile. However operators need to wake up to what they have already got” said van Zanen.
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